F

Ford Motor Company

13.05
USD
-3.33%
13.05
USD
-3.33%
11.85 25.87
52 weeks
52 weeks

Mkt Cap 51.21B

Shares Out 3.92B

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The Best And Worst Of Q4 Earnings

Earnings season begins this week as corporations report their Q4 results and wrap up fiscal year 2021. Earnings season unofficially begins when the large banks begin reporting their earnings and concludes when Walmart (WMT) releases its results. We do a lot of earnings season analysis using our Earnings Explorer tool. One type of analysis is tracking how share prices typically react to earnings reports. Since the start of 2011, there have been certain companies that have excelled after reporting Q4 results specifically, while others have historically struggled. Of the companies that have at least five years worth of Q4 reports, Netflix (NFLX), Etsy (ETSY), and SolarEdge (SEDG) have been the S&P 500’s three top performers, averaging 12.4%, 9.6%, and 8.3% gains on their Q4 earnings reaction days, respectively. Charles River Laboratories (CRL), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Signature Bank (SBNY), and Lamb Weston (LW) have beaten Q4 sales estimates every time, while ETSY, Fortinet (FTNT), EPAM Systems (EPAM), Meta Platforms (FB), and LW have beaten Q4 EPS estimates 100% of the time. (Click on image to enlarge) Using our Earnings Explorer, below is a look at how Netflix (NFLX) has historically performed on its earnings reaction days broken out by quarter. (For a stock that reports in the morning before the open, that day is its “earnings reaction day.”For a stock that reports after the close, the next trading day is its “earnings reaction day.”)Remarkably, NFLX has historically averaged declines on its earnings reaction days for Q1, Q2, and Q3 earnings releases, but it has absolutely soared on its Q4 earnings reaction days. As shown, the stock has historically averaged a one-day gain of 10.72% on its Q4 earnings reaction day with positive returns 74% of the time. (Conversely, the stock has historically averaged a decline of 6% on its Q2 earnings reaction day (typically in July) with positive returns just 20% of the time.)

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